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Saturday, August 20, 2011

BACK TO THE FUTURE: WILL TURKEY RULE SYRIA AND LEBANON? WILL EGYPT RULE GAZA? WILL JORDAY RULE JUDEA-SAMARIA? AGAIN???

AN ALL TOO LIKELY CONSEQUENCE OF THE SO-CALLED "ARAB SPRING" IS A "BACK TO THE FUTURE" SCENARIO IN TERMS OF MIDDLE EAST POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY.

Until the Brittish occuppied "Palestine" circa World War One, it was the Turks who ruled and called the territory inclusive of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria by the name "Syria".

In 1948 Jordan invaded and occupied Judea-Samaria, preventing a UN sanctioned call for a "State of Palestine" from being realized into existence alongside the newly recognized State of Israel. Also in 1948 Egypt invaded and occupied Gaza, some of which at the time was the legal property of Jews.

Egypt remained in Gaza until Israel kicked out the Egyptians in the 1956 Sinai Campaign, and Jordan remained in Judea-Samaria until Israel defeated the Jordanians in 1967 in the Six Day War.

If Assad and Alawite power (however cruel) should fail in Syria, then it must be considered that Turkey -- even while Turkey itself is in the midst of a Sunni shakedown/reformation of it's famed secular military -- could step in to stabilize the situation in Syria.

If Hamas and the various Gaza terrorist groups continue to terrorize Israel (simultaneously placing Egypt itself at risk, and using Egypt so blatantly and embarrassingly as an uncontrolled terrorist operations base), then it must be considered that Egypt -- even as it seeks to reform it's own Government amidst internal unrest -- could step in to stabilize the situation in Gaza.

If unrest causes the Palestinian Authority to lose it's grip in Judea-Samaria, then Jordan -- even while already struggling with it's own population's unrest, which includes two-million Iraqi refugees -- could step in to stabilize the situation in Judea-Samaria.

Is it "Back to the Future" for Israel -- a Turkish border to the north/northeast, an eastward inwards-denting Jordanian border including East Jerusalem and Judea-Samaria, and an expanded Gaza-inclusive Egyptian border to the south?

Will Israel be faced with Western pressure to surrender the Golan and the Sheva Farms in order to make a peace deal with an expanded Turkey?

Will Israel be faced with Western pressure to see Gaza completely under Egyptian domain?

Will Israel be faced with Western pressure to surrender East Jerusalem and Judea-Samaria to Jordan? There are already Israeli's. who favor such a deal with Jordan.

Today marks Five-Years-and-FIfty-Two-Days in the Captivity of Gilad Shalit.