HOSTAGE POPULATIONS TO IRAN'S TYRANNICAL, MEGALOMANIACAL REGIME AND SUBJECT TO IRAN'S TICKING NUCLEAR "TIME CLOCK".

WILL AHMADINIJAD'S HOSTAGE POPULATIONS SUFFER, WHEN IRAN'S NUCLEAR "TIME CLOCK" IS STOPPED BY MILITARY INTERVENTION FROM ISRAEL AND/OR THE WEST?

There are many distinct populations at risk in Iran under the present regime of Ahmadinjad and the Mullahs. While 90% of Iran's population are Shia, 8% are Sunni; of the remaining 2%, some 300,000 are of the Bahai faith, some 40,000 are Jews, there are some thousands of Christians, and others. All of these minorities are persecuted, and all of these minority populations have shrunk due to emigration in the face of persecution (the Jewish population numbered more than 100,000 only a few decades ago). As well, within the majority Shia population there are westernized and secularized populations that are not at all secure under the present regime.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively muzzled up internal efforts at regime change against Ahmadinijad and the Mullahs.

The world probably has no accurate picture of the scale of persecutions in Iran nor of the sufferings endemic there.

What kind of pressures can be employed against the current regime that will create opportunity for internal resistance, minimize persecutions against minorities, protect minority and resistance populations, and terminate Iran's potential nuclear threat?

Under the present regime Iran has steadily built up it's military (especially it's missile and naval capabilities), and it's intelligence services terrify not only Iran itself, but, operate internationally, having a sphere of influence well beyond Iran's borders, notably and obviously in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq.

Therefore the question must be, "Is a well-informed, well-planned, well-coordinated strike against Iranian nuclear facilities both necessary and sufficient in order to bring about change in Iran and in order to de-fang Iran's nuclear threat?"

The world must keep in mind that Israel has none of the luxuries of time, distance, and tolerance that other nations may have. The world must also keep in mind that it's own perceptions of luxuries of time, distance, and tolerance may be dangerously false and even delusional.

Hostage populations make for deterrence against attack on at least two counts: as objects of sympathy and as objects of bait for traps. These populations may also exist on the surface of subterranean enemy facilities, such that attack on those enemy facilities requires attack on sympathetic populations.

There is no simple solution, only a best effort at damage control in the face of inevitable war.

THE EIGTH DAY OF CHANNUKAH 5771

TODAY IS DAY 1650 IN THE CAPTIVITY OF GILAD SHALIT.

The world says nothing about Gilad Shalit, making not even a whisper.

Yet the world weeps that Israel will not surrender Jerusalem, will not buckle to world pressure to retreat to 1967 borders, will not prohibit Jewish life in East Jerusalem, ignoring that Israel does not, will not, and would not prohibit Arab life outside East Jerusalem.

There is a terrible double standard in the world that says, that Israel must give away and give away and give away and give away, and that Arabia may take and take and take and take by violent means of arms and by violent means of politics and by violent means of media saturation.

There is a movement in the UN to recognize a State of Palestine based on 1967 borders, and both Brazil and Argentina (infamous homes for Nazis fled to South America on losing WW2) push this.

The Catholic Church's Council of Bishops and America's General Petraeus have both seen fit to blame Israel as the source of all political instability in the Middle East.

Iran now has it's own mining sources of nuclear raw materials with which to feed the centrifuges in which it produces weapons grade nuclear fuel.

North Korea has attacked South Korea, bringing North Korea and South Korea to the brink of all out military engagement, and causing both an American aircraft carrier group and the nation of Japan to go on the alert in support of South Korea; and of course it may be presumed that Russia and China may be on alert to support North Korea. North Korea may not be found geographically in the Middle East; but, it is the eastern-most nation of the "Axis of Evil" identified by the Bush Administration. It is the Axis of Evil that gave us a nuclear Pakistan, Nine-Eleven, and Mahmoud Ahmadinijad.

May the "drunken" leadership of the world take a sober moment, away from self-absorbed concerns of Wikileak exposure, to realize that the world at large already perceives they are "naked"; and in this sober moment, world leadership should insist on the safe, immediate, unconditional freedom of Gilad Shalit!

Rosh HaShanah and Yom Kippur have come and gone. Sukkoth has come and gone. In the secular world of the USA, Halloween and Thanksgiving have come and gone -- all without the presence of Gilad Shalit at his parent's table.

May the Shalit family find solace and light on this Eigth Night of Channukah, and may Gilad Shalit find his own oil to last as miraculously as did the oil in the time of the Macabees, oil that burned for eight days and nights, when it seemed there was only sufficient oil to burn in the Menorah for one night!

DAY 1482: MORE PROVOCATIONS ON THEIR WAY TOWARDS ISRAEL BY LAND, AIR, SEA ...

STILL THERE IS NO WORD ON ANY CHANCE OF FREEDOM FOR GILAD SHALIT.

In the wake of the Mavi Mamara incident Israel is easing restrictions on the landed flow and nature of goods permitted into Gaza. This unfortunately includes construction materials, much of which will inevitably wind up in the hands of Hamas and will accelerate the rate at which Hamas is able to build such things as military bunkers. Ostensibly this increased legal flow of goods into Gaza will cut the bottom out of the black market being run through the illegal tunnels between Gaza and Egypt. If you believe that line, let me tell you, there is a bridge for sale in Brooklyn....

If there is an upside to Israel's conciliation to international pressure to ease the flow of goods into Gaza, it is that Middle East Envoy Tony Blair has stated publicly that "there is no need" for aid to be sent by sea to Gaza, given the extent to which Israel has eased the flow and diversity of aid allowed into Gaza via proper landed channels.

This is an important statement by Tony Blair as antidote to the propaganda venom of Israel's enemies, who have ramped up provocations of Israel by scheduling additional "humanitarian aid" flotillas to violate Israel's naval blockade of Gaza. Ships from Lebanon via Cyprus and from Iran via the Suez Canal are either on their way or scheduled for imminent departure towards Israel. The Lebanese ships are reported to be financed by Arab-Iranian Yasser Kashlak, Lebanese businessman and allegedly the primary financial intermediary supplying Iranian funds to Hamas and Hezbollah. The Iranian vessels represent a team effort between The Red Crescent and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with full public support of Ahmadinijad. An unsubstantiated report of a possible air attempt at blockade running into Gaza of Iranian aid from Egypt needs confirmation. Lebanon and Iran have both given national sanction to the alleged "humanitarian aid" missions of these ships, and have pre-established their rhetoric as to the alleged peacefulness of these missions, stating that on that basis they will blame Israel, should any incidents occur.

The USA has quietly sent a carrier group through the Suez Canal just coincidentally in advance of the uncertainly scheduled departures of "humanitarian aid" ships from Iran. Will this carrier group intercept or deter the Iranian ships? Will other nations such as France, Britain, Italy, or Germany make similar showings in the Mediterranean? Such intervention with or without UN involvement could prevent a regional war.

Perhaps even the UN will do it's duty and warn these so-called "humanitarian aid" ships that, by attempting to break Israel's blockade of Gaza, they are engaging in acts of war against Israel, and that Israel has the right to defend itself, even militarily.

Realistically, expecting any such fair and rational behavior from the UN is less a winning bet than a purchase-offer on that bridge in Brooklyn. But, still, in theory we may expect the UN to do the right thing, and if we do not express just what the right thing is, there is no way to hold the UN accountable for doing the wrong thing.

Speaking of the wrong thing, the right thing, and the UN: is it too much to ask that the UN pass an unequivocal resolution asking Hamas to safely and unconditionally return Gilad Shalit home to Israel, immediately?

TODAY IS DAY 1482 IN THE KIDNAPPING AND CAPTIVITY OF GILAD SHALIT.