DAY 1482: MORE PROVOCATIONS ON THEIR WAY TOWARDS ISRAEL BY LAND, AIR, SEA ...

STILL THERE IS NO WORD ON ANY CHANCE OF FREEDOM FOR GILAD SHALIT.

In the wake of the Mavi Mamara incident Israel is easing restrictions on the landed flow and nature of goods permitted into Gaza. This unfortunately includes construction materials, much of which will inevitably wind up in the hands of Hamas and will accelerate the rate at which Hamas is able to build such things as military bunkers. Ostensibly this increased legal flow of goods into Gaza will cut the bottom out of the black market being run through the illegal tunnels between Gaza and Egypt. If you believe that line, let me tell you, there is a bridge for sale in Brooklyn....

If there is an upside to Israel's conciliation to international pressure to ease the flow of goods into Gaza, it is that Middle East Envoy Tony Blair has stated publicly that "there is no need" for aid to be sent by sea to Gaza, given the extent to which Israel has eased the flow and diversity of aid allowed into Gaza via proper landed channels.

This is an important statement by Tony Blair as antidote to the propaganda venom of Israel's enemies, who have ramped up provocations of Israel by scheduling additional "humanitarian aid" flotillas to violate Israel's naval blockade of Gaza. Ships from Lebanon via Cyprus and from Iran via the Suez Canal are either on their way or scheduled for imminent departure towards Israel. The Lebanese ships are reported to be financed by Arab-Iranian Yasser Kashlak, Lebanese businessman and allegedly the primary financial intermediary supplying Iranian funds to Hamas and Hezbollah. The Iranian vessels represent a team effort between The Red Crescent and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with full public support of Ahmadinijad. An unsubstantiated report of a possible air attempt at blockade running into Gaza of Iranian aid from Egypt needs confirmation. Lebanon and Iran have both given national sanction to the alleged "humanitarian aid" missions of these ships, and have pre-established their rhetoric as to the alleged peacefulness of these missions, stating that on that basis they will blame Israel, should any incidents occur.

The USA has quietly sent a carrier group through the Suez Canal just coincidentally in advance of the uncertainly scheduled departures of "humanitarian aid" ships from Iran. Will this carrier group intercept or deter the Iranian ships? Will other nations such as France, Britain, Italy, or Germany make similar showings in the Mediterranean? Such intervention with or without UN involvement could prevent a regional war.

Perhaps even the UN will do it's duty and warn these so-called "humanitarian aid" ships that, by attempting to break Israel's blockade of Gaza, they are engaging in acts of war against Israel, and that Israel has the right to defend itself, even militarily.

Realistically, expecting any such fair and rational behavior from the UN is less a winning bet than a purchase-offer on that bridge in Brooklyn. But, still, in theory we may expect the UN to do the right thing, and if we do not express just what the right thing is, there is no way to hold the UN accountable for doing the wrong thing.

Speaking of the wrong thing, the right thing, and the UN: is it too much to ask that the UN pass an unequivocal resolution asking Hamas to safely and unconditionally return Gilad Shalit home to Israel, immediately?

TODAY IS DAY 1482 IN THE KIDNAPPING AND CAPTIVITY OF GILAD SHALIT.

TU B'SHEVAT 5768 -- BITTER FRUIT

Today the world saw the reason that Isael never should have withdrawn from Gaza in 2005: the brink of war and a potential new refugee crisis. Caught between the Israeli army in the north and the Egyptian army in the south, many of the Arab population of Gaza pressed against the southern border crossing, trying to make their way into Egypt only to be repulsed.

The proximal reason for this: Israel turned off power and water to Gaza as a response to the incessant Qassam missile barraging of southern Israel. In this past week alone 150 Qassams barraged the town of Sderot. Even today, when Israel eased off on the power and water blockade, 19 missiles were launched into Israel by Hamas.

Although there is reason to be glad that the Israeli Government has finally taken action to help the town of Sderot, there is more reason to be angry with the Israeli Government, which Government created this unnecessary reality, which it caused by unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza. Many, many persons (including myself, well before I commenced this Blog) wrote in 2004 and in 2005 that the inevitable result and consequence of such a withdrawl, beyond the obvious insult to the lives of the Jews then living in Gaza on land bought and paid for prior even to the 1948 War of Independence, would be (1) the setting of a precedent for ethnic cleansing in the form of making Gaza free from Jews, (2) the pitting of Arab against Arab in civil and political war, (3) the inevitability of security issues to Israel, most especially in the form of the launching of Qassam rockets into Israel by various terrorist groups, and (4) risk to the 'peace' with Egypt, however cold and fragle that "peace" may be.

Much has come to pass, including the (a) capture of Gilad Shalit into Gaza, (b) the captures of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev into Lebanon, and (c) the now infamous Second Lebanon War. Now, Gaza is on the verge of out and out civil war, war with Israel, and perhaps even war with Egypt - unless Egypt desides to war on Israel.

Sooner or late and probably sooner, the Arab populations of Judea-Sumaria will rise up in arms to support their brethren in Gaza. They will vote en masse with rocks, bullets, Qassams, and Katyushas. All the world of Islam will support them, as will Europe and much of the Third World. So too will the Arab citizens of Israel, more than a million of whom blatantly celebrate "Al-Naqba" (the Catastrophe of the Existence of the Jewish State of Israel) on Israel Independence Day.

Surely this was all forseen, and Israel and the world chose the evil path that has led us to today's bitter fruit.

This bitter "fruit" does not appear to be fruit upon which the "SH'HECHIANU" blessing is deserved.

May HaShem come speedily in our days and rebuild the Beth HaMikdash.